Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 1.060102 1.244044 1.450398 1.699092 1.990801 2.322272 2.727774
2024-10-06 0.815382 1.072341 1.394900 1.829836 2.401706 3.129092 4.126566
2024-10-13 0.621247 0.885990 1.245980 1.771853 2.522006 3.556211 5.095312
2024-10-20 0.494474 0.752966 1.127939 1.712429 2.603183 3.914226 5.999534
2024-10-27 0.405180 0.652800 1.032563 1.658583 2.668622 4.241559 6.891553
2024-11-03 0.354379 0.600471 0.997144 1.684619 2.851923 4.764073 8.156166
2024-11-10 0.330809 0.586993 1.019163 1.803319 3.198592 5.592677 10.045812
2024-11-17 0.300915 0.557126 1.007859 1.861055 3.446199 6.285084 11.802058
2024-11-24 0.269188 0.518503 0.974574 1.872619 3.609689 6.847488 13.402519
2024-12-01 0.239062 0.477886 0.931074 1.857124 3.717467 7.317724 14.892631
2024-12-08 0.214212 0.443537 0.894073 1.847635 3.833293 7.815502 16.506152
2024-12-15 0.195953 0.419579 0.873728 1.867754 4.009962 8.455058 18.501468
2024-12-22 0.171938 0.380760 0.819176 1.811657 4.025535 8.779305 19.908151
2024-12-29 0.167138 0.382744 0.850636 1.946024 4.474874 10.093536 23.717406
2025-01-05 0.147261 0.348053 0.797616 1.884002 4.474794 10.419737 25.321577
2025-01-12 0.129983 0.316698 0.747487 1.820768 4.461548 10.712384 26.890802
2025-01-19 0.115344 0.289395 0.702774 1.763489 4.453338 11.014352 28.529672
2025-01-26 0.107542 0.277670 0.693347 1.791183 4.658676 11.861670 31.683416
2025-02-02 0.105829 0.281059 0.721294 1.917452 5.133934 13.450738 37.032013
2025-02-09 0.100714 0.274830 0.724159 1.978870 5.448699 14.674370 41.598087
2025-02-16 0.093709 0.262501 0.709515 1.991172 5.632816 15.579922 45.430299
2025-02-23 0.086159 0.247539 0.685753 1.974689 5.734235 16.274844 48.772461
2025-03-02 0.079612 0.234452 0.665301 1.964594 5.852605 17.034900 52.433839